股票代码:871946
无船承运人编号:MOC-NV06770

航运业结构性复苏,下半年旺季弹性可期


Jun 26 2017

导读:集运市场和干散货市场正在通往复苏之路中,船东普遍较为悲观,再投资大幅下降,供给增速已经降至低位。

  相关股票:中远海控 601919 0.00% 中远海特 600428 0.32%

  航运港口板块盈利预测与估值我们在16年11月13日发布的航运业跟踪报告《通往复苏之路,积蓄向上的弹性》中提到,集运市场和干散货市场正在通往复苏之路中,船东普遍较为悲观,再投资大幅下降,供给增速已经降至低位。需求层面,市场预期较低,但随着欧美补库存需求增强、中国出口复苏,航运需求正逐步超预期。需求回升叠加集运集中度提升以及干散货产能利用率的反转将是2017年运价向上弹性放大的重要条件。

  中长期来看,行业产能过剩、竞争激烈、下行压力较大,并且整体估值偏贵,维持行业“中性”评级,投资者可继续关注港口整合、雄安新区、粤港澳大湾区等主题投资机会。

  经济下滑,航运港口需求低于预期;航运港口供给超出预期;油价大幅波动;港口整合效果及进度低于预期;

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